Bitcoin price could reach $100,000 by Thanksgiving if bulls maintain control over a crucial support level.
A Brief Review of the Current Market Situation
As we approach the end of November, Bitcoin’s price has been oscillating around key local lows. On November 15th, bulls attempted to swap all-time highs for support retests, but their efforts were met with resistance.
BTC/USD Price Action
According to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, the BTC/USD price dipped below $87,000 into the daily close. This downturn came on the heels of new all-time highs notched on November 13th, which had seen prices touch $90,000.
The Impact of US Inflation Data
The latest United States inflation data, specifically the October print of the Producer Price Index (PPI), has sparked concerns about stagflation. PPI rose to 2.4% for October, exceeding expectations by 0.1%. This development has led to a renewed focus on financial policy hawkishness, which could be detrimental to risk assets and cryptocurrencies.
In a recent article, The Kobeissi Letters noted that "both PPI and CPI inflation are now officially back on the rise with Core inflation above 3.0%." They warned that this trend poses significant challenges for the Federal Reserve, stating: "The Fed’s job is still far from done here."
Implications of Rising Prices and a Weak Labor Market
Kobeissi further emphasized that rising prices combined with a weak labor market create a perfect storm for stagflation. This situation would put the Fed in a precarious position, as they face a lose-lose scenario: raising rates could lead to recession, while cutting rates would exacerbate inflation.
The Effect on Bitcoin Price
The confluence of these factors has led analysts to urge protection of the area around $87,000. Trader Skew noted that "likely the same passive buyer in these 3 lows around $87K before it was finally taken." He also identified an "aggressive seller trying to force" BTC/USD to lower levels.
Keith Alan, co-founder of Material Indicators, suggested that a retest of support at $86k would be healthy for BTC price strength. A return to the mid-$80,000 range could ultimately provide insight into whether momentum can be sustained for a run at $100k or if it will cool off.
A Psychological Target in Sight?
Alan also hinted that Bitcoin’s ultimate psychological target – $100,000 – might be within reach as soon as the Thanksgiving holiday on November 28th. However, to achieve this milestone, it is crucial to preserve a rising short-term trend line.
BTC/USD 4-Hour Chart
If support fails at the line, price will search for support in the $75k – $76k range. This emphasizes the importance of maintaining a solid support structure to facilitate growth towards the coveted $100,000 mark.
Conclusion
As we continue to navigate this volatile market, it is essential to remain informed and adapt to changing circumstances. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions.
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